Occam’s Razor and the RV (12/2/11)

Carl Sagan once stated that “extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence“.  Many of the claims used to persuade people about an impending RV of unprecedented proportions have no evidence at all, let alone the extraordinary kind.  If you’re not familiar with the principle of Occam’s Razor it’s usually summed up as  “All things being equal the simplest answer is usually best.”

How does this relate to the dinar?  Well let’s start with “The Plan”.  Many of us have been told that Dick Cheney and others within the Bush administration created “The Plan” which allowed us to go into Iraq, remove Saddam from power, replace the existing Iraqi dinar with the new dinar or IQD, snatch up a buttload of it and then when things stabilize in Iraq return it to its former value, setting the Iraqis on the road to prosperity and creating a windfall in the trillions for the US in the process.  (When some people refer to “The Plan” they’re talking about a document called “The Future of Iraq Project” which is a legitimate and verifiable plan.  But most are referring to this supposed secret deal that Cheney and others came up with.)

Now in order to believe this, you have to first of all assume that this secret plan somehow inadvertently fell into the hands of dinar dealers and gurus who are now using it on a daily basis to generate handsome profits for their web-based dinar businesses.  Second, you have to believe that an unprecedented upward revaluation of a currency from 100,000 – 400,000 % (depending on whose rate you believe) is going to take place when this happens.  Third, you have to believe that many of the accepted rules of economics are being cast aside in this once in a lifetime situation where currency reserves, money supply, security, stability, and logistics don’t really seem to matter.  And fourth, you have to believe that economists, currency experts, and professional investment advisers somehow were left out of the loop and were replaced by the likes of people with backgrounds in MLM, the restaurant business, software development, oil drilling, real estate, bodybuilding, the military, internet marketing, snake breeding, aviation, journalism, theology …. etc.  These are your experts now.  And fifth, you have to believe that Bush knew ahead of time that we would RV the IQD after the war and that’s what he meant when he said the war would pay for itself, despite the fact that nobody has ever been able to provide any proof that Bush ever said any such thing.

Is all of this possible?  Yeah sure, I suppose just about anything is possible.  But “is it likely?” is a different question entirely.  During the O.J. Simpson murder trial attorney Johnny Cochran explored the theory that drug lords from Colombia might be to blame for the murders.  Isn’t a much simpler explanation that a jealous, controlling ex-husband with a prior conviction for domestic violence was to blame?  When Chandra Levy went missing many people theorized that she stumbled onto some incriminating evidence about our government and influential elected officials and was kidnapped and shuttled off to another country or possibly dumped in the ocean to silence her.  It turned out that she was just the unfortunate victim of a random attacker in a park.  In a similar way we are now presented with a plethora of implausible scenarios which must come together to make this “blessing” happen for us.  But isn’t it more likely that Iraq’s future will more closely resemble that of many countries in the past whose currencies were devalued by hyperinflation brought on by war and sanctions?  That means a re-denomination followed by a slow, steady climb back up toward its former value.  I submit to you that Occum’s Razor would favor that rather than the unlikely convergence of all of the other factors listed above.

We’ve been told for a couple of years now that the new lower denomination IQD (which are necessary to make this RV possible) were printed at the same time as the existing higher denominations, and that they’re being stored safely somewhere in Iraq.  In fact many claim to have seen them, but somehow nobody has ever managed to provide the dinar community with a single photo.  Isn’t it more likely that the Iraqis are still in the process of determining how they’re going to proceed with issuing the new currency that they’ve told us that they’re going to introduce?

We’ve been presented with a hundred different reasons that the RV hasn’t happened yet.  Obama wants to delay it until 2012 so that he can take credit for the economic turnaround that it will produce.  Obama’s opponents are delaying it until after they win the election so that they can take credit.  Software glitches  have put it off for the 15th time.  Political bickering in Iraq is holding it up.  This law has to be passed first.  That agreement has to be signed.  This person or that country has to get on board.  The banking network is still being tested …. etc. etc.  Some people actually believe that the RV has been “done” now for a long time, but complications keep putting off the actual activation again and again, week after week, month after month.  Isn’t it far more likely that it simply isn’t done?  We’ve been subjected to endless claims of intel about everything from rate and dates to secret cash-ins to private conversations between the parties involved to a hundred other things.  And when pressed for proof the typical response is “I can’t divulge my sources.”  Isn’t it far more likely that people with ulterior motives are making up these stories for their own nefarious purposes?

One dinar guru seeks to tie the impending revaluation of the Iraqi dinar to extra-terrestrial or possibly even metaphysical events.  When all the stars align it will happen.  When the world is spiritually ripened for this world changing event it will happen.  Do we really need to start learning about astrology, bible prophecy, seismology, astronomy, and philosophy in addition to economics and finance in order to understand this investment?

Then there’s the community who believes that the RV is all tied into a worldwide redistribution of wealth called “global settlements” and “prosperity packages”, and that this will bring about the end of the Federal Reserve and the US dollar which will be replaced by the amero as we move ever closer to a one world government, economy, and currency.  Really?

Is it possible that we’re witnessing a once in a lifetime phenomenon of economics unfolding before our eyes?  Maybe.  But seeing as how the gurus’ assertions are so extraordinary and so unverifiable, I think investors need to be sure to keep their investment in this speculative venture to a minimum.  Occum’s Razor, folks.  The simplest answer is usually best.  In all likelihood what we’re seeing is the slow, painful process of bringing a war-torn nation brutalized for decades by a Stalinist dictator back into the international community a step at a time.  They’re not a rich country.  They’re a poor country with potential for great wealth, but they have huge political, social, and logistical hurdles to first overcome.  Until they do, their currency probably won’t be worth much more than it is now.  All of the hype and intel we’re hearing?  Occum’s Razor would suggest that it’s BS.