For the past four years we’ve been hearing from the gurus that Maliki is history. He’s going to be run out of office, arrested, assassinated, tortured, or run out of the country. Supposedly the powers that be (PTB) were tired of him holding up the RV or the GCR or whatever. In 2010 the election was essentially a tie and the stalemate lasted for eight months. Almost all of the gurus said that Allawi would prevail. They were wrong. Time after time those same gurus told us that Maliki was a crook and wouldn’t finish out the year. They said that in 2011, 2012, and again in 2013. Wrong, wrong, and wrong. Now the gurus are telling us that Maliki is seeking a third term in violation of the Iraqi constitution. I don’t know about that since I’m no expert on their constitution or political process, but according to this article the Iraqi supreme court overturned a law limiting the prime minister to two terms. Regardless, I don’t think it really matters where the dinar is concerned. Maliki or no Maliki this millionaire-creating RV isn’t going to happen.
Anyway, we’re hearing almost unanimous declarations that Maliki won’t win another term in the upcoming election. He’s “in a world of hurt” or he’s “toast” or he’s “finished” or he’s “fighting for his life”. All rubbish. But the gurus have to have somebody to blame for the fact that this RV hasn’t materialized, don’t they? I wrote about this nearly two years ago in “Maliki and the RV“. You see, these guys have made Maliki the scapegoat for years, saying that he is holding up the RV or the GCR or whatever. So they have to tell their listeners that Maliki won’t win another term because if he does we’re looking at another four years of Maliki holding up the RV or the GCR or whatever, and who wants to hang around another four years waiting for this thing to pop?
Let me go on record as being neither pro-Maliki or anti-Maliki. My position is that the guy is probably no better or worse than any other leader would be, but he’s obviously a better politician. He knows how to work the system, and despite all of the problems in Iraq he has managed to keep the country from self-destructing. So far, anyway. While I won’t make any predictions about the election I will say this …. based on Maliki’s track record and the track record of the gurus I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Maliki win and serve a third term as prime minister of Iraq.
If that occurs be prepared to hear more cries of Maliki holding up the RV or the GCR or whatever. If Maliki doesn’t win then be prepared for new non-Maliki-based excuses as to what’s holding everything up now. It’s how the gurus roll.