I’ve been enjoying a break from the dinar over the last few weeks, but recent developments inside of Iraq have compelled me to write again. The second largest city of Mosul fell into the hands of Islamic militants, along with Saddam Hussein’s hometown of Tikrit. Hundreds of thousands of people fled their homes amidst the fighting and turmoil. Many Iraqi soldiers apparently fled as well, inspiring Maliki to call on Iraqi citizens to take up the fight. The situation is now chaotic to the point of threatening the fragile democracy that was left behind when coalition forces left at the end of 2011.
While we can assign political blame to either Obama for allowing the situation to deteriorate to this point with apparently no plan or willingness to act, or to his predecessor Bush for creating the mess in the first place with seemingly no well-thought-out plan for the post-war Iraq, the facts are not very encouraging. Iraq may well be headed toward toward either a failed state or an Islamic theocracy like their neighbor Iran. The best case scenario would be a return of coalition forces to an occupied state like they had three years ago, a step back rather than forward for Iraq’s new government.
One report stated that the militant group ISIS stole $429 million worth of dinar (500 billion dinar) from a bank in Mosul. That being the case, how can anybody believe that any revaluation is now possible? To raise the value of the dinar now would only increase the value of the currency held by the forces trying to topple Iraq’s government. A much more likely scenario would be for the government to act now to carry out the currency reform plan to demonetize the IQD, thereby leaving the currency that ISIS stole worthless. That of course would also leave the currency held by dinar speculators worthless. Whether they’ll do that or not I won’t venture to guess, but it’s safe to say that the “RV today, cash in tomorrow” BS has never been more obvious, and the idea of the dinar being released on a free float where it will skyrocket in value has never been more laughable.
Despite the current crisis dinar gurus were doing their best to calm their followers and keep their crumbling empires intact. “Maliki is behind this because he knew he was losing the election.” “Saudi Arabia and Iran are behind it.” “It’s actually good for the dinar investment because it gives Maliki more clout.” “Iraq needs the RV now more than ever!” Blah, blah, blah ….. What did you expect? You think these guys are going to just toss away this gravy train of dinar investors buying their investment crap and providing ad revenues for them by admitting that the RV is dead? Of course not! These guys are unconscionable and incorrigible. They’ll milk this dinar thing for all it’s worth until a better scam comes along.
At this point I’d like to remind everybody of what I wrote in my first post called “RV Reality Check” in September of 2011.
“Don’t put any more into the dinar than you can afford to lose. PERIOD!!! Anybody who tells you it’s a sure thing and that you’re buying a winning lottery ticket is either stupid or dishonest. Some have the idea that you can always sell your dinar and recoup most of your money. Really? Have you tried that? A lot of people bought their dinar from currency dealers who are no longer in business. You can try selling your dinar on ebay but you’ll have to take an even bigger hit there. And even if you could sell back to the dealer you bought from, who’s to say that the dinar won’t go down in value? I mean anything could happen. An earthquake. A meteor. Civil war. A coup. War with Iran. If the dinar is ever completely devalued I can assure you that none of the dinar dealers will give you a plug nickel for them. There’s absolutely no guarantee that you won’t wake up tomorrow and find that every dollar you invested in the IQD is gone.”
That warning has never been more applicable than it is today. Hold on to those dinars at your own peril, folks. But even if somehow Iraq’s crisis were to be magically resolved, I maintain as I have from day one of this blog that nobody will get rich by holding dinar. It’s just not possible from the standpoint of economics.
I feel for the people of Iraq. They’ve been through over thirty years of war and tyranny, and now this. I also feel for the hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of people who have been duped into buying dinar in the belief that it could experience a substantial revaluation and change their lives. After nearly three years of blogging about this topic and warning people about the scam and scammers however, I have to admit that my compassion is wearing thin.
Iraq Currency Watch 