In the dinar community it is really hard to get to the bottom of all the rumors out there. I was really surprised to read this on Dinar Daddy’s site
“Intel Guru TD Well friends yesterday I cashed out 95% of my dinar holdings. Over a week ago I received some troubling rumors from the sandbox that there were serious discussions coming to a unanimous consensus of Iraq’s intentions to only do a C/E IN HOUSE (i.e. inside Iraq only) . Of course I’m sure you’ll cry fowl but among points of discussion was the simple fact of 30-40 Trillion dinars outside of Iraq and the impossibility of simple arithmetic. In addition, I was told that the dinar we hold was never LEGALLY SANCTIONED (BY IRAQ) to be sold outside of Iraq. We all know it is not traded internationally. I’d also urge you to read …statements from the IMF, etc.
Banned From Dinar Recaps”
Never legally sanctioned is a reference to Iraq’s currency laws and some international treaties. These are the same laws that they will cite when they redenominate. I will cover that in a bit, but for those who don’t know who Guru TD is, his stuff can be found on Dinar Vets, Dinar Recaps, Dinar Daily, and Dinar Guru among other places. He is all over the dinar community. Is this a recent revelation for TD? Here is what he said just a short while back.
“Dinar Guru TD Well like most of you I’ve been holding my breath last couple days about the CBI site and I just received confirmation that it is only website maintenance going on so we can all exhale!! No changes in rates YET!! However I’m told that the next 75 days looks very promising for….”
Here are other view points from TD from 2013
“10-2-2013 Intel Guru TD Don’t Fret, the process is underway. I have changed my stance (due to reliable info) from cautiously optimistic to expectant of fruition. It might be just days to a few more weeks. WATCH SOON for a false announcement ( I’m told) ALA KUWAIT for a postponement of the currency reform program ( as like till sometime 2014) and you’ll know we are then there. Purchasing power increase for their citizens (and our ROI ) will be gradual and the longer the window of allowing the old notes to remain the better we can increase our ROI. AS I reported before they are following neighbor’s Turkey’s currency reform program in many respects. Turkey allowed a full year to exchange their old notes. Iraq may not be as long BUT the IQD is much more devalued than what the Lira was and the return could be much, much better BUT again don’t expect unrealistic returns. Most importantly there are no pesky obstacles or bickering going on !!”
It seems that TD has totally changed his view. I came to the same conclusions as an investor in 2012. I use to be totally head over heels involved in this investment before I learned the truth. Now it looks like we have a guru who is starting to see the light. So I will now share what recaps has decided to ban.
Banned From Dinar Recaps
Saturday night I wrote some observations and emailed them to Recaps BUT have been barred (Again) from posting.
I hope Dinar Daily and Baghdad Invest are open minded enough to post this.
I did not bash Recaps in any way just wrote up some observations regarding the Paul Bremer interview and some analysis of the dinar, it’s community and current happenings.
I guess Recaps only wishes to continue posting just hopium and if you don’t want to post about sudden wealth creation, millionaire status, tips & lifestyles of the rich articles and declare that in a moments notice “it is done”, “done” and “done” well then…..you don’t get posted.
Here’s in a nutshell what I tried to post ………..
Mr. Bremer’s interview didn’t yield much in terms of the actual dinar status but it was very revealing in many other ways, namely :
IRAQ IS/NOT IN CONTROL :
His comments should put to rest once and for all that No one other than Iraq is in control of it’s programs and policies. Mr. Bremer revealed that it was always the intention to get Iraq Reconstructed, hand over the reins and let Iraq walk on it’s own. That’s the definition of a country’s sovereignty.
Our role as Americans is always to assist and act in a noble way. We have done that all over the world : Germany, Japan, S. Korea, Iraq.
Gooorooos have for way too long indicated otherwise : it’s in the hands of 3 letter agencies, it’s in CL’s hands, it’s in Obama’s hands, etc. Ridiculous and now a senior political figure has set the record straight. Move on knowing Iraq is in charge of it’s own affairs.
This has been a pet peeve subject of mine for the longest time. There is indeed the strongest of correlations between a nation’s security and it’s “True Value” rate of currency. In Iraq’s case timely introduction of economic reform programs and joining the world international arena rests heavily on it.
Mr. Bremer remarked about the current war on terrorism ” It’s a close call at this point”.
Reality is the GOI is having a challenge indeed fighting the war and trying to recapture control of cities. I’ve received reports saying exactly that. You may have noticed that not much is being reported of the on ground fight. Journalists are not being allowed to cover it and it’s not going well.
Until they are able to gain control currency movements are not a priority.
Some in Dinarland have irresponsibly remarked that perhaps this is smoke & mirrors of the imminent RV. This is ridiculous ! Innocent people are caught up in this turmoil and it is real and a setback. War & terror is hell on earth. Yet, all what many dinarians care about is stuffing their pocketbooks. Who cares about Iraqis dying, let them eat cake.
A real sense of a nations security is vital to currency movements. Recently I did a piece here on Dinar Daily about what a typical episode can do to a nation’s currency. The case in point was the scandal in Turkey which I’ll do a synopsis here.
Recaps BTW was also allowed to publish the analysis yet it’s not their cup of tea to report actual, real time happenings. They’d much rather publish articles about lifestyles of the rich.
The Turkey saga has unfolded since December in real time before us and has serious consequences to a nation’s currency. Corruption scandal there has led to ministers resigning, massive arrests and has led to “INSTABILITY” forcing it’s Central Bank to inject millions of dollars, prop up the currency .
Inflation is rippling through the economy and the Turkish Lira is down 20%. Turkey, BTW is the largest economy in the Middle East and dwarfs Iraq in terms of economy, modernization of banking & infrastructure, etc. This is real and not Memorex.
Let’s assume for a minute that Iraq had introduced the IQD internationally last fall. What do you think the current crisis would have done to it’s rate ? Well much of the answer depends on it’s “real time” rate. Let’s say it “artificially ” introduced it $3+ , it would plummet dramatically and it would devastate their economy.
There are severe consequences for Iraq to do it right and at the right time.
Mr. Bremer stated some very real progress of Iraq, it’s per capita income is 6X higher, 27M Iraqis have cell phones. Their GDP is growing.
I and others have reported the massive expenditure into modernization of it’s banking system, training of personnel. However outside of Baghdad there is mistrust of citizens still and uniform transactions via credit cards, online banking & Atm’s remain challenging.
As Mr. Bremer remarked “There’s no mechanical way to predict what the currency will do. ” Market will reflect an assestment of the economic situation as well as the currency”. AND HE ALSO REMARKED ” THERE IS RISK WITH THE DINAR WHERE THERE ISN’T ONE WITH OTHER COUNTRY”.
Yes, the risk is plentiful. Iraq has made progress and still has much to do. It’s economy is still 95% oil dependant. The membership into the WTO requires diversification, the banking industry needs public & international exposure. Now, that’s not to say it can’t go international soon. The key is at what “sustainable rate”. Let’s not forget that Iraq has achieved GDP growth at 1166. Let’s not forget that Iraq has already RV’d from 1170, even from 3000. So could it move from 1166 ? Yes indeed ! Will it move overnight 500 % , 1000 % , 10,000 % . Most unlikely ! It can’t afford to artificial rates that are not supportable and let’s not forget that during Saddam’s time the $3+ rate was indeed ARTIFICIAL and not accepted by the IMF & world community.
Just look up the write ups here on Dinar Daily and Baghdad Invest, whom both are open forums & have the courage to show the history of nations who have had lots of zeros to their currencies. In each and every case a LOP was done. Look at the history of the China RV, it was a couple percentages each time.
I have reported (the only intel provider I might add) that the Iraq currency reform project is receiving cooperation from the Turks and helping Iraq unveil their program in parallel fashion to what Turkey did a few years ago.
Thank you Dinar Daily & Baghdad Invest to report real history .
Recaps : We love the articles about “What to do with sudden wealth” . Happy dreams.
You know folks you are welcome to believe what to believe and who to believe. What I recommend is to do your own diligence, fact finding and your own homework.
At least a couple of the sites do provide all kinds of information which will enable you to make wiser conclusions.
Will Mr. Bremer’s interview quiet some of the noise ? I doubt it cause soon afterwards Recaps posted from a Guru that we were still on a moment’s notice. Is the new definition of “moment” now months, years, ?? Anyone know ? Will they continue to insist Iraq got admitted into the WTO on December 29th, or any moment now ? Paradoxically on Recaps there are daily stories from real people, their economic collapse, no cars, jobs, food, . And yet, Recaps keeps posting false hopium to these people day in and day out. And contrary comments toward the untouchable gurus is strictly frowned upon.
You know folks when people are batting .000 day after day, month after month, years, some even 10 years then you really have to ask “why I should I still buy into you” Shouldn’t you ??
This really brings into focus what Zahlid has said. I find myself anxiously waiting to see what March has in store for us. TD was quoting some of jack’s arguments as well. When TD said “Inflation is rippling through the economy and the Turkish Lira is down 20%. Turkey, BTW is the largest economy in the Middle East and dwarfs Iraq in terms of economy, modernization of banking & infrastructure,” This information can be found in the comment section of an older article on Baghdad Invests way before TD brought it up. This is something Jack said.
It is good to see a guru set the record straight. It is good to see that Baghdad Invest is having an impact on people, and most of all it is finally good to see people reason and think this thing through to it’s logical conclusion.
The only thing that I disagree with is the amount of dinar outside of the country. Just my personal opinion, but I doubt there is 30 to 40 Trillion outside of the country when there is only 34 trillion outside of banks. I will explain my theory about how much dinar is held by spectators outside the country. Keep in mind that this is only a theory and my opinion. This is just a guess and I could be totally wrong on this. This does not have conclusive evidence. I will now show you my theory in steps. You will need Microsoft Excel to participate in this exercise.
1. To begin we must go The Central Bank of Iraq’s website. Go to the statistic page. Here is a link.
2. Download a document called key financial indicators and open it with Microsoft Excel.
3. Scroll down to line 79. It says a-Currency outside of banks. This is the currency that is in circulation. The number is rounded to the nearest billion. You see for December of 2013 the number is 34 Trillion 492 billion. That is how much dinar is in circulation.
4. At the bottom of the spread sheet to the far right there is a scroll bar. Use it to scroll back to the year 2005. You will see that currency outside of banks in December of 2005 is 9 trillion 113 billion for December of that year.
Here is my theory. In October of 2003 the dinar was exchanged. The old notes with Saddam’s picture were traded for the new notes that spectators have today. The trade in period expired at the end of the year and they had three months to trade out the old notes for the new notes. The central bank opened it’s doors in march of 2004. By the end of 2004 they had a little over 7 trillion outside of banks. By the end of 2005 they had all the currency they needed to conduct business.
Here is another wikileaks document from the Embassy in Baghdad. This is from July of 2008
2. (C) Fouad Mustafa, chairman of the Iraqi Private Banking Association and president Credit Bank of Iraq, told econoff on July 6 that private banks are growing and “doing well” in Iraq. In the past three years, the average capital of private banks in Iraq has grown from approximately USD 6 million to over USD 40 million. And while the overall environment for private banking had improved in the past five years, many challenges remained, Mustafa said.
Now why is that? Why has capital grown so much? I suspect that dinar was being exported and exchanged for U.S. dollars which caused the banks to grow and also assisted in the growth of reserves at the central bank as well. So from 2008 go back 3 years and I am willing to bet that is the point when the dinar was beginning to be exported all over the world. Older articles on this site goes into a bit more detail.
Look at the Key Financial indicator spreadsheet and you will see by the end of 2008 18 trillion 493 billion was now in circulation. The amount of currency in circulation has doubled in just in 3 years’ time. Banks were cleaning up by exporting the currency. The amount of dinar in circulation was growing due to the currency leaving the country. The more the reserves grew the more currency was released. They had to replace the currency that was leaving the country. (Currency Law article 32)
So now let’s take today’s totals of currency outside of banks which is 34 trillion 492 billion, and lets subtract the amount that was outside of banks at the end 2005 which is 9 trillion 113 billion. That leaves a total of 25 trillion 379 billion dinar
Right or wrong I believe there is about 25,379,000,000,000 dinar outside Iraq which is held by private spectators around the globe. This is not an exact number but I think approximately this much dinar is outside of Iraq. If this is indeed the case and they redenominate only within the borders of Iraq then that leaves a lot of spectators out in the cold. You have got to wonder how much dinar is held by private spectators in America!
People believe guru lies that say Iraq can’t redenominate in country and that they will be held accountable. Iraq is not going to redenominate.
So let’s start by looking at Iraq’s progress with new bank notes
As you can see there will be a redenomination. Now let’s look at Iraq’s currency Laws
Scroll down to article 32
1. The CBI shall have the exclusive right to issue banknotes and coins intended for circulation in Iraq. Banknotes issued under this Article shall be a first charge on the assets of the CBI. The CBI shall make appropriate arrangements for the issue of banknotes and coins required for circulation in Iraq. Banknotes and coins issued by the CBI and intended for circulation in Iraq are not promissory notes, bills of exchange, or any other type of commercial document under the applicable commercial law, and the cbi is obligated to honor them only as provided by this law
2. Only bank notes and coins issued by the CBI that have not been demonetized shall be legal tender in Iraq.
3. The CBI may, by regulation, limit the amounts of banknotes and coins that must be accepted as legal tender in payment for an obligation and restrict the denominations of such banknotes and coins in which payment may be made to specified amounts or a range of amounts.
this means that the CBI CAN DENY REDEMPTION if it… in its discretionary opinion thinks that cashing in all of the dinar out there that they have issued… will cause a run on the security of the back or on Iraq as a whole!
The CBI is only obligated to honor the currency according to this currency law. The dinar is only meant for circulation in Iraq. It was not meant to be exported. They will cite this law when they redenominate!
Look at this wiki leaks document.
America does not have a bilateral treaty obligation with Iraq, furthermore Iraq’s National Investment Law does not cover the banking sectors or it’s currency. This document is from the embassy in Baghdad. This means that Iraq is not obligated to honor it’s currency outside of it’s borders due to international treaties or laws!
So I guess there are questions you need to ask yourself. Do you think Iraq is going to keep the 25 billion U.S. dollars it collected as it’s currency was exported? Even if Iraq does not close it’s border when they redenominate how will you get there to trade in your dinar?
I still can’t help but ask these questions. How much of that dinar is here in America? How many private citizens is there in America that hold dinar? There is only one thing for sure, when this thing goes down a lot of people holding dinar will be shocked into waking up! This so-called investment has been the greatest currency scam I have ever seen!